Management · Promote or Protect
Turn 1/3
How do you handle the opening?
Result of Turn 1
The room reads it as a standard being set
Gains
Signal is unambiguous
Retention risk drops
Bar is public
Costs
Headroom spent early
Two peers now waiting
Through Second-Order Thinking: the promotion is the easy consequence. The one that decides your next two quarters is what the two people who did not get it do on Monday.
Compare · your path and Munger’s
Your path
Turn 1 re-forecast · Turn 2 held · Turn 3 held ·
Turn 4 cut 20% · Turn 5 bridge at a 30% discount.
Exited at turn 5 · runway 3 wks at close ·
team 19
Through Inversion · Munger
Turn 1 re-forecast · Turn 2 cut 20% ·
Turn 3 bridge from the existing syndicate · Turns 4–5 unspent.
Exited at turn 2 · runway 9 wks at close ·
team 21
Same scenario, same authored options — only the preference order changed. That is what makes the contrast teach.